Aalen–Johansen · three states · monthly

WCS Division Advancement

Every WCS dancer either moves up to the next division or stops competing. How many advance, and when?

Each month, we track the share of dancers who have advanced, who have stopped competing, and who are still competing.

Share who advanced, by month since entering the division Cumulative incidence of advancement. The curves flatten naturally as dancers advance or stop competing — there aren't enough people left competing to move it higher by much.

The small parallel bar charts show, for each month, how many dancers left observation without advancing — our data on them simply ran out.

Still competing vs Advancing — the counts behind the curves
How many were still competing at that month, with advanced and censored counted cumulatively to it.

Where everyone ends up

The same data, by division. The three bands track the same population every month, answering: "of everyone who entered the division, where are they now"?

Advanced, stopped competing, still competing Stacked cumulative incidence. The bands sum to 1 by construction, never by normalising afterwards. The advancing band wears its division's colour rather than one colour for the state, because its upper edge is the very curve that division draws above.

What does "stopped competing" mean?

"Stopped competing" is a heuristic: a dancer with no scoring placement for 25 months reads as retired. Re-running the estimate at 12 and 36 months shows how much of the headline belongs to the rule rather than to the dancers.

Terminal advanced share against the retirement cutoff

Read this as the width of the answer. The 25-month cutoff is the one every other number on this page uses. The spread between the 12- and 36-month runs is neither error nor noise — it is the part of "how many advance" that the cutoff decides.

What these numbers are not

The caveat that travels with the metric

Excluded, and counted

Incomplete era

Table view — every plotted month, every division

Rows step through the plotted range, 0–120 months. The terminal row carries the end of the full curve, which runs further than the chart does — out to month , by which point a single dancer is still climbing and the estimate rests on them alone.